Stanton’s Home Run Status–September 2012

About a year ago, I wrote about currently “Mike” Stanton’s September surge, and his 50th career home run. I made the bold prediction that Stanton would hit 500 career home runs, and I determined I would catch that milestone blast. Today, Giancarlo Stanton stands at 90 career home runs.

After his 50th, I did some estimating and a few calculations, and guessed he would hit his 500th sometime in his mid-30s, so in the 2024-2027 range. I guessed that he would play 140 games in an average season. However, since then, Stanton has been marred by a few injuries, in particular his knee on which he had surgery this year. Hopefully, we have seen the worst of his health already as he has been getting used to the big leagues. Realistically, though, a big slugger like Giancarlo will have a tough time completing any given year without physical impediments.

On the season, Stanton has played in 117 games. So far for his career, he has participated in 367. I will estimate using this small sample size. I’ll shave off a few games just to get a round number, 360, and I’ll rationalize that subtraction by claiming the injuries impeded him in at least seven games. He was also in a severe slump for the first month of the year. Anyway, 90 homers among 360 games is equal to one home run every four games. So, if he plays 120 a season, he should be looking at 30 homers. But hopefully he will stay healthy for more than 120 games.

Had Stanton not been plagued by injuries this year, 40 blasts would have been a real possibility. The young slugger will turn 23 in November, so his prime years are still well ahead of him. Lets assume his prime will be between ages 25 and 33. Eight years is fair, no? During that time, he may average 40 homers a season. It could be 45. And if the Marlins’ front office is willing to move a few fences in, that number could jump even higher. Who knows? But let’s round down to compensate for his non-prime years between now and 25. And we’ll say he plays several years past his prime. So how about 35 home runs on average between now and age 38. So that’s a good 15 seasons remaining.

35 per year might be a slightly high estimate, but let’s work with it. With 15 seasons remaining, and averaging 35 homers per season while playing 130 games per season, he will hit 525 MORE home runs. Add that to the 90 he has already got and we’re looking at a 600th home run! Actually, a 615th home run!

Last year, my estimate came out to just about 600 even. However, there was more rounding this year, and maybe too much optimism. I do think, though, that 130 games per year is not to much to guess. Yes, he will have some problems, but I sure hope that Giancarlo Stanton is able to stay healthy long enough to see a transition in Miami’s front office that results in a championship team.

There is a foolproof way to ensure that Stanton gets to 500, and at this rate, smash the career home run record. Have him join the Colorado Rockies. In six career games in Denver, Stanton has hit five home runs. In the extremely unlikely event he would remain at that rate, and given he would play 65 games at home and 65 on the road, Stanton would hit 54 homers just at home, and still have the road games to play around with.

In my opinion, the career figure for home runs should be overshadowed by the pure monstrosity of some of Stanton’s home runs. I’ve begun analyzing one of his blasts this year, and I plan to share my findings here once I have dissected a few notable home runs. I’m also working on a “Stanton Coefficient” to determine a magnitude for the impressiveness of a single home run.